单位:[1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Diseases, 95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China临床科室国家中心消化分中心消化内科首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院
Objective This study aimed to assess the incidence, identify independent factors, and develop a lymph node metastasis (LNM) prediction model for patients with T1 colon cancer. Methods Statistics were drawn from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2014. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of LNM. A nomogram for predicting the possibility of LNM was developed based on those factors. Results A total of 5397 patients with T1 colon cancer were identified. The overall LNM rate was 15.0% (808/5397). A multivariate analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR] 0.97, P < 0.001), tumor size (OR 1.01, P < 0.001), moderate (OR 1.77, P = 0.001) or poorly differentiated/undifferentiated tumor (OR 5.60, P < 0.001), right colon cancer (OR 1.39, P = 0.008), and a positive carcinoembryonic antigen level (OR 1.51, P = 0.004) were independent predictive factors for LNM. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.71) in the training set and 0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.67) in the validation set. A calibration plot showed good consistency between the bias-corrected prediction and the ideal reference line with 1000 additional bootstraps (mean absolute error = 0.007). Conclusions The incidence of LNM was high in patients with T1 colon cancer. A nomogram for predicting the probability of LNM for T1 colon cancer may be used to help determine the optimal treatment for these patients.
基金:
National Key Research and Development Program of China [2017YFC0113600]
第一作者单位:[1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Diseases, 95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Diseases, 95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China[*1]95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Hu Dong Ya,Cao Bin,Li Shi Han,et al.Incidence, risk factors, and a predictive model for lymph node metastasis of submucosal (T1) colon cancer: A population-based study[J].JOURNAL of DIGESTIVE DISEASES.2019,20(6):288-293.doi:10.1111/1751-2980.12754.
APA:
Hu, Dong Ya,Cao, Bin,Li, Shi Han,Li, Peng&Zhang, Shu Tian.(2019).Incidence, risk factors, and a predictive model for lymph node metastasis of submucosal (T1) colon cancer: A population-based study.JOURNAL of DIGESTIVE DISEASES,20,(6)
MLA:
Hu, Dong Ya,et al."Incidence, risk factors, and a predictive model for lymph node metastasis of submucosal (T1) colon cancer: A population-based study".JOURNAL of DIGESTIVE DISEASES 20..6(2019):288-293