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Incidence, risk factors, and a predictive model for lymph node metastasis of submucosal (T1) colon cancer: A population-based study

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单位: [1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Diseases, 95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China
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关键词: colonic neoplasms lymphatic metastasis nomogram predictive factor SEER program

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Objective This study aimed to assess the incidence, identify independent factors, and develop a lymph node metastasis (LNM) prediction model for patients with T1 colon cancer. Methods Statistics were drawn from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2014. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to determine independent predictors of LNM. A nomogram for predicting the possibility of LNM was developed based on those factors. Results A total of 5397 patients with T1 colon cancer were identified. The overall LNM rate was 15.0% (808/5397). A multivariate analysis showed that age (odds ratio [OR] 0.97, P < 0.001), tumor size (OR 1.01, P < 0.001), moderate (OR 1.77, P = 0.001) or poorly differentiated/undifferentiated tumor (OR 5.60, P < 0.001), right colon cancer (OR 1.39, P = 0.008), and a positive carcinoembryonic antigen level (OR 1.51, P = 0.004) were independent predictive factors for LNM. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.71) in the training set and 0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.67) in the validation set. A calibration plot showed good consistency between the bias-corrected prediction and the ideal reference line with 1000 additional bootstraps (mean absolute error = 0.007). Conclusions The incidence of LNM was high in patients with T1 colon cancer. A nomogram for predicting the probability of LNM for T1 colon cancer may be used to help determine the optimal treatment for these patients.

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出版当年[2018]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 胃肠肝病学
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出版当年[2017]版:
Q4 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q3 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2017版] 出版当年五年平均[2013-2017] 出版前一年[2016版] 出版后一年[2018版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Diseases, 95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Department of Gastroenterology, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, National Clinical Research Center for Digestive Diseases, Beijing Digestive Disease Center, Beijing Key Laboratory for Precancerous Lesion of Digestive Diseases, 95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China [*1]95# Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing, 100050, P. R. China
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