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aMAP risk score predicts hepatocellular carcinoma development in patients with chronic hepatitis

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单位: [1]State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China [2]Department of Gastroenterology, Medical School of National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Laiko General Hospital, Athens, Greece [3]Glasgow Caledonian University School of Health and Life Sciences. Glasgow, United Kingdom [4]Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Ogaki Municipal Hospital, Ogaki,Japan [5]Department of Infectious Diseases, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China [6]Gilead Sciences, Foster City, CA, USA [7]Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology & Medical Statistics, Medical School of National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece [8]NIHR Nottingham Biomedical Research Centre, Nottingham University Hospitals NHS [9]Department of Nursing, Gifu Kyoritsu University, Ogaki, Japan [10]Department of Hepatology, First Hospital, Jilin University, Changchun, China [11]Department of Internal Medicine, Thessalia University Medical School, Larissa,Greece [12]Peter Medawar Building for Pathogen Research, Nuffield Department of Medicine and the Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, Oxford University, United Kingdom [13]Centers of Infectious Diseases, Tangdu Hospital, the Fourth Military Medical University, Xi'an, China [14]Department of Gastroenterology, University of Ankara Medical School, Ankara, Turkey [15]Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, United Kingdom [16]Department of Infectious Diseases, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University,Shenyang, China [17]Division of Hepatology, Clinic and Polyclinic for Gastroenterology, Hepatology Infectious Disease and Pneumology, University Clinic Leipzig, Germany [18]Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom [19]Department of Gastroenterology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China [20]Hospital General Universitario Valle Hebron and Ciberehd, Barcelona, Spain [21]Hospital U Puerta de Hierro, IDIPHIM CIBERehd, Madrid, Spain [22]Department of Infectious Diseases, First Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China [23]Liver Clinic, Toronto Western & General Hospital, University Health Network, Toronto,ON, Canada [24]Big data research and Biostatistics Center, Hangzhou YITU Healthcare Technology Co., Ltd Hangzhou, China [25]Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital, Guangzhou, China [26]Peking University Hepatology Institute, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, China [27]Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University,Beijing, China [28]Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool,United Kingdom [29]Foundation IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico - Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology - CRC “A. M. and A. Migliavacca” Center for Liver Disease, Milan, Italy [30]Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy
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关键词: HCC Risk score Hepatitis B virus Hepatitis C virus Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease

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Background & Aims: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic hepatitis. In this international collaboration, we sought to develop a global universal HCC risk score to predict the HCC development for patients with chronic hepatitis. Methods: A total of 17,374 patients, comprising 10,578 treated Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB), 2,510 treated Caucasian patients with CHB, 3,566 treated patients with hepatitis C virus (including 2,489 patients with cirrhosis achieving a sustained virological response) and 720 patients with non-viral hepatitis (NVH) from 11 international prospective observational cohorts or randomised controlled trials, were divided into a training cohort (3,688 Asian patients with CHB) and 9 validation cohorts with different aetiologies and ethnicities (n = 13,686). Results: We developed an HCC risk score, called the aMAP score (ranging from 0 to 100), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. This metric performed excellently in assessing HCC risk not only in patients with hepatitis of different aetiologies, but also in those with different ethnicities (C-index: 0.82-0.87). Cut-off values of 50 and 60 were best for discriminating HCC risk. The 3- or 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 0-0.8%, 1.5-4.8%, and 8.1-19.9% in the low- (n = 7,413, 43.6%), medium- (n = 6,529, 38.4%), and high-risk (n = 3,044, 17.9%) groups, respectively. The cut-off value of 50 was associated with a sensitivity of 85.7-100% and a negative predictive value of 99.3-100%. The cut-off value of 60 resulted in a specificity of 56.6-95.8% and a positive predictive value of 6.6-15.7%. Conclusions: This objective, simple, reliable risk score based on 5 common parameters accurately predicted HCC development, regardless of aetiology and ethnicity, which could help to establish a risk score-guided HCC surveillance strategy worldwide. Lay summary: In this international collaboration, we developed and externally validated a simple, objective and accurate prognostic tool (called the aMAP score), that involves only age, male, albumin-bilirubin and platelets. The aMAP score (ranged from 0 to 100) satisfactorily predicted the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development among over 17,000 patients with viral and non-viral hepatitis from 11 global prospective studies. Our findings show that the aMAP score had excellent discrimination and calibration in assessing the 5-year HCC risk among all the cohorts irrespective of aetiology and ethnicity. (C) 2020 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2018版] 出版当年五年平均[2014-2018] 出版前一年[2017版] 出版后一年[2019版]

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第一作者单位: [1]State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
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通讯机构: [1]State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Viral Hepatitis Research, Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China [28]Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool,United Kingdom [29]Foundation IRCCS Ca’ Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico - Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology - CRC “A. M. and A. Migliavacca” Center for Liver Disease, Milan, Italy [30]Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation, University of Milan, Milan, Italy [*1]Department of Infectious Diseases, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China [*2]CRC “AM e A Migliavacca” Center for Liver Disease, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Fondazione IRCCS Cà Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milano, Italy [*3]Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, University of Liverpool 2nd floor Sherrington Building, Ashton Street, Liverpool L69 3GE, United Kingdom
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