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A New Deep Learning Algorithm for Detecting the Lag Effect of Fine Particles on Hospital Emergency Visits for Respiratory Diseases

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单位: [1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou 511458, China [4]Beijing Huayun Shinetek Science and Technology Company Ltd., Beijing 100101, China [5]Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Key Laboratory of Guangdong for Utilization of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System, Engineering Technology Center of Remote Sensing Big Data Application of Guangdong Province, Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou 510070, China [6]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China [7]International Medical Services, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing 100029, China
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关键词: Fine particles (PM2 5) respiratory diseases prediction lag distribution effect distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) long short-term memory (LSTM)

摘要:
There exists a time lag between short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and incidence of respiratory diseases. The quantification of length of the time lag is significant for preparation and allocation of relevant medical resources. Several classic lag analysis methods have been applied to determine this length. However, different models often lead to distinct results and which one is better is subtle. The prerequisite of obtaining the reliable length is that the model can truly reveal the underlying pattern hidden in the above relationship. Long short-term memory (LSTM) is an artificial recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture used in the field of deep learning, whose strong capability makes it widely applied in many fields. In this study, we manage to exploit it to acquire the time-lag length in the exposure-response relationship. The relationship between exposure and response is assumed as linear and non-linear, and models with and without confounding factors are performed under these two assumptions. Results of DLNM model show that the best hospital emergency visit prediction appears in 3 lag days, with the maximum RR value of 1.004357 (95% CI: 1.000938-1.009563). Then, a vary of LSTM models with different time steps are performed, which are evaluated by mean absolute error (MAE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), the root of mean square error (RMSE) and R square (R-2). The results show that LSTM of time step 3 achieves the lowest MAE (33), MAPE (9.86), RMSE (42) and the highest R-2 (0.78), consistent with the result of DLNM model. Also, the proposed model is compared with ARIMA model, one of the commonly used forecasting models, showing better accuracy. This demonstrates that LSTM can be used as a new method to detect the lag effect of PM2.5 on respiratory diseases.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 2 区 工程技术
小类 | 2 区 计算机:信息系统 2 区 工程:电子与电气 3 区 电信学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 计算机科学
小类 | 4 区 计算机:信息系统 4 区 工程:电子与电气 4 区 电信学
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Q1 TELECOMMUNICATIONS Q1 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
最新[2023]版:
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Q2 TELECOMMUNICATIONS

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2018版] 出版当年五年平均[2014-2018] 出版前一年[2017版] 出版后一年[2019版]

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第一作者单位: [1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou 511458, China
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通讯机构: [1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Guangzhou 511458, China [6]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China
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