高级检索
当前位置: 首页 > 详情页

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Systematic Review of 14 Models and External Validation

文献详情

资源类型:
WOS体系:
Pubmed体系:

收录情况: ◇ SCIE

单位: [1]National Clinical Research Center of Digestive Diseases, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China [2]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, Mainland China [3]Liver Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine in Liver Cirrhosis, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China [4]Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan [5]Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan [6]Graduate Institute of Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
出处:
ISSN:

关键词: Hepatocellular Carcinoma Chronic Hepatitis B Prediction Model Meta-Analysis External Validation

摘要:
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of our study was to characterize the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients through meta-analysis followed by external validation. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of current literature, followed by external validation in independent multi-center cohort with 986 patients with CHB undergoing entecavir treatment (median follow-up: 4.7 years). Model performance to predict HCC within 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration index. Subgroup analysis were conducted by treatment status, cirrhotic, race and baseline alanine aminotransferase. RESULTS: We identified 14 models with 123,885 patients (5,452 HCC cases), with REACH-B, CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models being broadly externally validated. Discrimination was generally acceptable for all models, with pooled AUC ranging from 0.70 (95% CI, 0.63-0.76 for REACH-B) to 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.87 for REAL-B) for 3-year, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73 for REACH-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85 for REAL-B) for 5-year and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58-0.80 for PAGE-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84 for REAL-B and 0.77-0.86 for AASL-HCC) for 10-year prediction. However, calibration performance was poorly reported in most studies. In external validation cohort, REAL-B showed highest discrimination with 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.83) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.81) for 3 and 5-year prediction. The REAL-B model was also well calibrated in the external validation cohort (3-year Brier score 0.066). Results were consistent in subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In a systematic review of available HCC models, the REAL-B model exhibited best discrimination and calibration.

基金:
语种:
被引次数:
WOS:
PubmedID:
中科院(CAS)分区:
出版当年[2020]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 胃肠肝病学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 1 区 医学
小类 | 1 区 胃肠肝病学
JCR分区:
出版当年[2019]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q1 GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2019版] 出版当年五年平均[2015-2019] 出版前一年[2018版] 出版后一年[2020版]

第一作者:
第一作者单位: [1]National Clinical Research Center of Digestive Diseases, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]National Clinical Research Center of Digestive Diseases, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China [3]Liver Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine in Liver Cirrhosis, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China [4]Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan [5]Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan [6]Graduate Institute of Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan [*1]Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, 95 Yong-an Road, Xi-Cheng District, Beijing 100050, China. [*2]Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road Section 2, Nankang, Taipei 115, Taiwan.
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
APA:
MLA:

资源点击量:1320 今日访问量:0 总访问量:816 更新日期:2025-04-01 建议使用谷歌、火狐浏览器 常见问题

版权所有:重庆聚合科技有限公司 渝ICP备12007440号-3 地址:重庆市两江新区泰山大道西段8号坤恩国际商务中心16层(401121)