单位:[1]National Clinical Research Center of Digestive Diseases, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院[2]Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University Health Science Centre, Beijing, Mainland China[3]Liver Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine in Liver Cirrhosis, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China临床科室国家中心肝病分中心首都医科大学附属北京友谊医院[4]Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan[5]Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan[6]Graduate Institute of Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of our study was to characterize the performance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients through meta-analysis followed by external validation. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of current literature, followed by external validation in independent multi-center cohort with 986 patients with CHB undergoing entecavir treatment (median follow-up: 4.7 years). Model performance to predict HCC within 3, 5, 7, and 10 years was assessed using area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration index. Subgroup analysis were conducted by treatment status, cirrhotic, race and baseline alanine aminotransferase. RESULTS: We identified 14 models with 123,885 patients (5,452 HCC cases), with REACH-B, CU-HCC, GAG-HCC, PAGE-B and mPAGE-B models being broadly externally validated. Discrimination was generally acceptable for all models, with pooled AUC ranging from 0.70 (95% CI, 0.63-0.76 for REACH-B) to 0.83 (95% CI, 0.78-0.87 for REAL-B) for 3-year, 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73 for REACH-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85 for REAL-B) for 5-year and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.58-0.80 for PAGE-B) to 0.81 (95% CI, 0.78-0.84 for REAL-B and 0.77-0.86 for AASL-HCC) for 10-year prediction. However, calibration performance was poorly reported in most studies. In external validation cohort, REAL-B showed highest discrimination with 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.83) and 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.81) for 3 and 5-year prediction. The REAL-B model was also well calibrated in the external validation cohort (3-year Brier score 0.066). Results were consistent in subgroup analyses. CONCLUSIONS: In a systematic review of available HCC models, the REAL-B model exhibited best discrimination and calibration.
基金:
Natural Science Foundation of Beijing Municipality [7194255]; National Science and Technologies Major Project [2018ZX10302204, 2017ZX10203202-003]; Beijing Municipal Administration Hospital's Youth Program [QML20170107]
第一作者单位:[1]National Clinical Research Center of Digestive Diseases, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]National Clinical Research Center of Digestive Diseases, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China[3]Liver Research Center, Beijing Key Laboratory of Translational Medicine in Liver Cirrhosis, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, Mainland China[4]Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan[5]Institute of Clinical Medicine, National Yang-Ming University, Taipei, Taiwan[6]Graduate Institute of Medicine, College of Medicine, Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan[*1]Liver Research Center, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, 95 Yong-an Road, Xi-Cheng District, Beijing 100050, China.[*2]Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, 128 Academia Road Section 2, Nankang, Taipei 115, Taiwan.
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Shanshan Wu,Na Zeng,Feng Sun,et al.Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Systematic Review of 14 Models and External Validation[J].CLINICAL GASTROENTEROLOGY and HEPATOLOGY.2021,19(12):2499-2513.doi:10.1016/j.cgh.2021.02.040.
APA:
Shanshan Wu,Na Zeng,Feng Sun,Jialing Zhou,Xiaoning Wu...&Hwai-I Yang.(2021).Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Systematic Review of 14 Models and External Validation.CLINICAL GASTROENTEROLOGY and HEPATOLOGY,19,(12)
MLA:
Shanshan Wu,et al."Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Chronic Hepatitis B: A Systematic Review of 14 Models and External Validation".CLINICAL GASTROENTEROLOGY and HEPATOLOGY 19..12(2021):2499-2513