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Climate and the spread of COVID-19

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单位: [1]Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany. [2]Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China. [3]Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria. [4]Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU), Vienna Institute of Demography, Vienna, Austria. [5]Economic Frontiers Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, Austria. [6]Division of Primary Care and Population Health, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. [7]National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China. [8]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China–Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China. [9]Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China. [10]Africa Health Research Institute (AHRI), Somkhele, KwaZulu‑Natal, South Africa. [11]Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
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Visual inspection of world maps shows that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is less prevalent in countries closer to the equator, where heat and humidity tend to be higher. Scientists disagree how to interpret this observation because the relationship between COVID-19 and climatic conditions may be confounded by many factors. We regress the logarithm of confirmed COVID-19 cases per million inhabitants in a country against the country's distance from the equator, controlling for key confounding factors: air travel, vehicle concentration, urbanization, COVID-19 testing intensity, cell phone usage, income, old-age dependency ratio, and health expenditure. A one-degree increase in absolute latitude is associated with a 4.3% increase in cases per million inhabitants as of January 9, 2021 (p value<0.001). Our results imply that a country, which is located 1000 km closer to the equator, could expect 33% fewer cases per million inhabitants. Since the change in Earth's angle towards the sun between equinox and solstice is about 23.5 degrees, one could expect a difference in cases per million inhabitants of 64% between two hypothetical countries whose climates differ to a similar extent as two adjacent seasons. According to our results, countries are expected to see a decline in new COVID-19 cases during summer and a resurgence during winter. However, our results do not imply that the disease will vanish during summer or will not affect countries close to the equator. Rather, the higher temperatures and more intense UV radiation in summer are likely to support public health measures to contain SARS-CoV-2.

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出版当年[2020]版:
大类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
小类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
小类 | 3 区 综合性期刊
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出版当年[2019]版:
Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
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Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

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第一作者单位: [1]Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Medical School, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany. [2]Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
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通讯机构: [2]Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China. [7]National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China. [8]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China–Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China. [9]Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China.
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