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Prediction of cardiovascular risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a study of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey database

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单位: [1]Department of Geriatrics, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China. [2]Research Ward, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, No. 95, Yong’an Road, Xicheng District, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China.
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关键词: Cardiovascular disease Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Predictive model NHANES database

摘要:
Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a common comorbidity associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but few studies have been conducted to identify CVD risk in COPD patients. This study was to develop a predictive model of CVD in COPD patients based on the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database. Methods: A total of 3,226 COPD patients were retrieved from NHANES 2007-2012, dividing into the training (n = 2351) and testing (n = 895) sets. The prediction models were conducted using the multivariable logistic regression and random forest analyses, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curves (AUC) and internal validation were used to assess the predictive performance of models. Results: The logistic regression model for predicting the risk of CVD was developed regarding age, gender, body mass index (BMI), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), family history of heart disease, and stayed overnight in the hospital due to illness last year, which the AUC of the internal validation was 0.741. According to the random forest analysis, the important variables-associated with CVD risk were screened including smoking (NNAL and cotinine), HbA1c, HDL, age, gender, diastolic blood pressure, poverty income ratio, BMI, systolic blood pressure, and sedentary activity per day. The AUC of the internal validation was 0.984, indicating the random forest model for predicting the CVD risk in COPD cases was superior to the logistic regression model. Conclusion: The random forest model performed better predictive effectiveness for the cardiovascular risk among COPD patients, which may be useful for clinicians to guide the clinical practice.

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出版当年[2020]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 心脏和心血管系统
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 心脏和心血管系统
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出版当年[2019]版:
Q3 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS
最新[2023]版:
Q3 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2019版] 出版当年五年平均[2015-2019] 出版前一年[2018版] 出版后一年[2020版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Department of Geriatrics, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100050, People’s Republic of China.
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