单位:[1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China[2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China[3]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China[4]State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, NationalInstitute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China[5]Dongfang Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100078, China[6]China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing 100029, China
The first wave of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in China showed there was a lag between the reduction in human mobility and the decline in COVID-19 transmission and this lag was different in cities. A prolonged lag would cause public panic and reflect the inefficiency of control measures. This study aims to quantify this time-lag effect and reveal its influencing socio-demographic and environmental factors, which is helpful to policymaking in controlling COVID-19 and other potential infectious diseases in the future. We combined city-level mobility index and new case time series for 80 most affected cities in China from Jan 17 to Feb 29, 2020. Cross correlation analysis and spatial autoregressive model were used to estimate the lag length and determine influencing factors behind it, respectively. The results show that mobility is strongly correlated with COVID-19 transmission in most cities with lags of 10 days (interquartile range 8 - 11 days) and correlation coefficients of 0.68 +/- 0.12. This time-lag is consistent with the incubation period plus time for reporting. Cities with a shorter lag appear to have a shorter epidemic duration. This lag is shorter in cities with larger volume of population flow from Wuhan, higher designated hospitals density and urban road density while economically advantaged cities tend to have longer time lags. These findings suggest that cities with compact urban structure should strictly adhere to human mobility restrictions, while economically prosperous cities should also strengthen other non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the virus.
基金:
National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [42041001, 41525004, 41421001]
语种:
外文
被引次数:
WOS:
中科院(CAS)分区:
出版当年[2019]版:
大类|2 区工程技术
小类|2 区计算机:信息系统2 区工程:电子与电气3 区电信学
最新[2025]版:
大类|4 区计算机科学
小类|4 区计算机:信息系统4 区工程:电子与电气4 区电信学
JCR分区:
出版当年[2018]版:
Q1COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMSQ1TELECOMMUNICATIONSQ1ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
最新[2023]版:
Q2COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMSQ2ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONICQ2TELECOMMUNICATIONS
第一作者单位:[1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China[2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China[2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China[3]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Xi Wang,Pei Tao,Liu Qiyong,et al.Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China[J].IEEE ACCESS.2020,8:216752-216761.doi:10.1109/ACCESS.2020.3038995.
APA:
Xi, Wang,Pei, Tao,Liu, Qiyong,Song, Ci,Liu, Yaxi...&Zhang, Zhixin.(2020).Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China.IEEE ACCESS,8,
MLA:
Xi, Wang,et al."Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China".IEEE ACCESS 8.(2020):216752-216761