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Quantifying the Time-Lag Effects of Human Mobility on the COVID-19 Transmission: A Multi-City Study in China

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收录情况: ◇ SCIE ◇ EI

单位: [1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China [3]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China [4]State Key Laboratory of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Disease, NationalInstitute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China [5]Dongfang Hospital, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100078, China [6]China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing 100029, China
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关键词: Urban areas COVID-19 Indexes Web and internet services Time series analysis Correlation Sociology control measures cross correlation human mobility influencing factors

摘要:
The first wave of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic in China showed there was a lag between the reduction in human mobility and the decline in COVID-19 transmission and this lag was different in cities. A prolonged lag would cause public panic and reflect the inefficiency of control measures. This study aims to quantify this time-lag effect and reveal its influencing socio-demographic and environmental factors, which is helpful to policymaking in controlling COVID-19 and other potential infectious diseases in the future. We combined city-level mobility index and new case time series for 80 most affected cities in China from Jan 17 to Feb 29, 2020. Cross correlation analysis and spatial autoregressive model were used to estimate the lag length and determine influencing factors behind it, respectively. The results show that mobility is strongly correlated with COVID-19 transmission in most cities with lags of 10 days (interquartile range 8 - 11 days) and correlation coefficients of 0.68 +/- 0.12. This time-lag is consistent with the incubation period plus time for reporting. Cities with a shorter lag appear to have a shorter epidemic duration. This lag is shorter in cities with larger volume of population flow from Wuhan, higher designated hospitals density and urban road density while economically advantaged cities tend to have longer time lags. These findings suggest that cities with compact urban structure should strictly adhere to human mobility restrictions, while economically prosperous cities should also strengthen other non-pharmaceutical interventions to control the spread of the virus.

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出版当年[2019]版:
大类 | 2 区 工程技术
小类 | 2 区 计算机:信息系统 2 区 工程:电子与电气 3 区 电信学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 计算机科学
小类 | 4 区 计算机:信息系统 4 区 工程:电子与电气 4 区 电信学
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出版当年[2018]版:
Q1 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Q1 TELECOMMUNICATIONS Q1 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC
最新[2023]版:
Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS Q2 ENGINEERING, ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONIC Q2 TELECOMMUNICATIONS

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2018版] 出版当年五年平均[2014-2018] 出版前一年[2017版] 出版后一年[2019版]

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第一作者单位: [1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, ChineseAcademy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China [3]Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China
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