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Rapid triage for ischemic stroke: a machine learning-driven approach in the context of predictive, preventive and personalised medicine

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单位: [1]Edith Cowan Univ, Ctr Precis Hlth, 270 Joondalup Dr, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia [2]Shandong First Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 2, Tai An, Shandong, Peoples R China [3]Dongping Peoples Hosp, Tai An, Shandong, Peoples R China [4]Taian City Cent Hosp, Tai An, Shandong, Peoples R China [5]Timen Township Cent Hosp, Tai An, Shandong, Peoples R China [6]Shandong First Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 619 Changcheng Rd, Tai An 271016, Shandong, Peoples R China [7]Shandong Acad Med Sci, 619 Changcheng Rd, Tai An 271016, Shandong, Peoples R China [8]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Friendship Hosp, Natl Clin Res Ctr Digest Dis, Dept Clin Epidemiol & Evidence Based Med, Beijing, Peoples R China [9]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing Key Lab Clin Epidemiol, Beijing, Peoples R China [10]Beijing United Family Hosp, 2 Jiangtai Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China [11]Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Ctr Cognit Neurol, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China [12]Shantou Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Med Coll, Shantou, Guangdong, Peoples R China [13]Edith Cowan Univ, Inst Nutr Res, Joondalup, WA, Australia
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关键词: Predictive preventive and personalised medicine (PPPM/3PM) Ischemic stroke Machine learning Objective clinical data Disease prediction Targeted prevention Patients stratification Improved individual outcomes

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Background Recognising the early signs of ischemic stroke (IS) in emergency settings has been challenging. Machine learning (ML), a robust tool for predictive, preventive and personalised medicine (PPPM/3PM), presents a possible solution for this issue and produces accurate predictions for real-time data processing. Methods This investigation evaluated 4999 IS patients among a total of 10,476 adults included in the initial dataset, and 1076 IS subjects among 3935 participants in the external validation dataset. Six ML-based models for the prediction of IS were trained on the initial dataset of 10,476 participants (split participants into a training set [80%] and an internal validation set [20%]). Selected clinical laboratory features routinely assessed at admission were used to inform the models. Model performance was mainly evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve. Additional techniques-permutation feature importance (PFI), local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-were applied for explaining the black-box ML models. Results Fifteen routine haematological and biochemical features were selected to establish ML-based models for the prediction of IS. The XGBoost-based model achieved the highest predictive performance, reaching AUCs of 0.91 (0.90-0.92) and 0.92 (0.91-0.93) in the internal and external datasets respectively. PFI globally revealed that demographic feature age, routine haematological parameters, haemoglobin and neutrophil count, and biochemical analytes total protein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were more influential on the model's prediction. LIME and SHAP showed similar local feature attribution explanations. Conclusion In the context of PPPM/3PM, we used the selected predictors obtained from the results of common blood tests to develop and validate ML-based models for the diagnosis of IS. The XGBoost-based model offers the most accurate prediction. By incorporating the individualised patient profile, this prediction tool is simple and quick to administer. This is promising to support subjective decision making in resource-limited settings or primary care, thereby shortening the time window for the treatment, and improving outcomes after IS.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 医学:研究与实验
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 2 区 医学
小类 | 2 区 医学:研究与实验
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出版当年[2020]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
最新[2023]版:
Q1 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2020版] 出版当年五年平均[2016-2020] 出版前一年[2019版] 出版后一年[2021版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Edith Cowan Univ, Ctr Precis Hlth, 270 Joondalup Dr, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia
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通讯机构: [1]Edith Cowan Univ, Ctr Precis Hlth, 270 Joondalup Dr, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia [2]Shandong First Med Univ, Affiliated Hosp 2, Tai An, Shandong, Peoples R China [6]Shandong First Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 619 Changcheng Rd, Tai An 271016, Shandong, Peoples R China [7]Shandong Acad Med Sci, 619 Changcheng Rd, Tai An 271016, Shandong, Peoples R China [9]Capital Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing Key Lab Clin Epidemiol, Beijing, Peoples R China [12]Shantou Univ, Affiliated Hosp 1, Med Coll, Shantou, Guangdong, Peoples R China [13]Edith Cowan Univ, Inst Nutr Res, Joondalup, WA, Australia
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