单位：[1]Department of Clinical research and Data management, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital National Center for Respiratory Medicine Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China[2]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China–Japan Friendship Hospital National Center for Respiratory Medicine National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Science, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China[3]Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, China[4]The 2nd Hospital of Jilin University, Changchun, China
IntroductionThe GAP model was widely used as a simple risk "screening" method for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). ObjectivesWe sought to validate the GAP model in Chinese patients with IPF to evaluate whether it can accurately predict the risk for mortality. MethodsA total of 212 patients with IPF diagnosed at China-Japan Friendship Hospital from 2015 to 2019 were enrolled. The latest follow-up ended in September 2022. Cumulative mortality of each GAP stage was calculated and compared based on Fine-Gray models for survival, and lung transplantation was treated as a competing risk. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of both discrimination and calibration. ResultsThe cumulative mortality in patients with GAP stage III was significantly higher than that in those with GAP stage I or II (Gray's test p < 0.0001). The Harrell c-index for the GAP calculator was 0.736 (95% CI: 0.667-0.864). The discrimination for the GAP staging system were similar with that for the GAP calculator. The GAP model overestimated the mortality rate at 1- and 2-year in patients classified as GAP stage I (6.90% vs. 1.77% for 1-year, 14.20% vs. 6.78% for 2-year). ConclusionsOur findings indicated that the GAP model overestimated the mortality rate in mild group.
基金：
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences
(Major Collaborative Innovation Project)
(2018-I2M-1-0001) and by the National
Key R&D Program of China
(No. 2016YFC0901101).
第一作者单位：[1]Department of Clinical research and Data management, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital National Center for Respiratory Medicine Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Beijing, China
共同第一作者：
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[2]Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China–Japan Friendship Hospital National Center for Respiratory Medicine National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Science, Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China[*1]Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, 2 Yinghuayuan E St, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100029, China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Zhang Xinran,Ren Yanhong,Xie Bingbing,et al.External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis[J].CLINICAL RESPIRATORY JOURNAL.2022,doi:10.1111/crj.13564.
APA：
Zhang, Xinran,Ren, Yanhong,Xie, Bingbing,Wang, Shiyao,Geng, Jing...&Dai, Huaping.(2022).External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.CLINICAL RESPIRATORY JOURNAL,,
MLA：
Zhang, Xinran,et al."External validation of the GAP model in Chinese patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis".CLINICAL RESPIRATORY JOURNAL .(2022)
