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Prognostic nomogram and score to predict renal survival of patients with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy

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单位: [1]Department of Nephrology, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, No. 2 East Yinghuayuan Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100029, China [2]Graduate School of Peking Union Medical College, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China [3]Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing 100029, China [4]Peking University Health Science Center, Beijing 100191, China
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关键词: Diabetic nephropathy Renal biopsy Prognosis Nomogram Risk score

摘要:
Aims: Both clinical and pathogenetic markers for accurate prediction of end-stage renal disease in diabetic nephropathy (DN) are lacking. This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram and a score for renal survival (RS) in biopsy-proven DN. Methods: Analyses were derived from 110 DN patients who underwent renal biopsy at China-Japan Friendship Hospital between January 2006 and May 2018 with DN as the only glomerular disease diagnosis. The prognostic ability of 34 baseline clinicopathologic parameters was evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the final model were measured using the calibration curve and concordance index (C-index). Internal validation of the model was assessed using bootstrap resampling. Results: Urinary proteinuria excretion, stages of chronic kidney disease, glomerular hyalinosis, and extracapillary hypercellularity were independent prognostic factors for RS, and all were selected into the nomogram. The calibration curve for the probability of survival showed good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. The C-index for predicting survival was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.86). A high C-index value of 0.76 indicated good internal validation. The prognostic score had the potential to delineate two prognosis groups with median RS of 24 and 70 months, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed nomogram and score provide a useful individualized risk estimate of renal prognosis in patients with DN. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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出版当年[2018]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 内分泌学与代谢
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 3 区 医学
小类 | 3 区 内分泌学与代谢
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出版当年[2017]版:
Q3 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM
最新[2023]版:
Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2017版] 出版当年五年平均[2013-2017] 出版前一年[2016版] 出版后一年[2018版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Department of Nephrology, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, No. 2 East Yinghuayuan Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100029, China [2]Graduate School of Peking Union Medical College, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
通讯作者:
通讯机构: [1]Department of Nephrology, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, No. 2 East Yinghuayuan Street, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100029, China [2]Graduate School of Peking Union Medical College, Peking Union Medical College and Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing 100730, China
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