单位：[1]Graduate School of Peking UnionMedical College, Beijing, 100730, People’sRepublic of China[2]Department ofGeneral Surgery, China-Japan FriendshipHospital, Beijing, 100029, People’sRepublic of China[3]Beijing University ofChinese Medicine, Beijing, 100029,People’s Republic of China[4]GraduateSchool of Tianjin Medical University,Tianjin, 300041, People’s Republic ofChina[5]Institute of Medical Technology,Peking University Health Science Center,Beijing, 100029, People’s Republic ofChina
Aim: In order to find the risk factors of postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) according to the latest definition and grading system of International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) (version 2016) and propose a nomogram for predicting POPF. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 232 successive cases of PD performed at our hospital by the same operator from August 2012 to June 2020. POPF was diagnosed in accordance with the latest definition of pancreatic fistula from the ISGPS. The risk factors of POPF were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram model to predict the risk of POPF was constructed based on significant factors. Results: There were 18 cases of POPF, accounting for 7.8% of the total. Among them, 17 cases were classified into ISGPF grade B and 1 case was classified into ISGPF grade C. In addition, 35 cases were classified into biochemical leak. Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that hypertension, non-diabetes, no history of abdominal surgery, antecolic gastrojejunostomy and soft pancreas were independent risk factors of POPF. Based on significant factors, a nomogram is plotted to predict the risk of POPF. The C-index of this nomogram to assess prediction accuracy was 0.916 (P < 0.001) indicating good prediction performance. Conclusion: Hypertension, non-diabetes, no history of abdominal surgery, antecolic gastrojejunostomy and soft pancreas were independent risk factors of POPF. Meanwhile, a nomogram for predicting POPF with good test performance and discriminatory capacity was constituted.
基金：
Fund of China-Japan Friendship Hospital [2017-RC-2]
语种：
外文
WOS：
中科院(CAS)分区：
出版当年[2020]版：
大类|4 区医学
小类|3 区卫生保健与服务
最新[2025]版：
大类|3 区医学
小类|4 区卫生保健与服务4 区卫生政策与服务
JCR分区：
出版当年[2019]版：
Q2HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICESQ2HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES
最新[2023]版：
Q2HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICESQ2HEALTH POLICY & SERVICES
第一作者单位：[1]Graduate School of Peking UnionMedical College, Beijing, 100730, People’sRepublic of China[2]Department ofGeneral Surgery, China-Japan FriendshipHospital, Beijing, 100029, People’sRepublic of China
通讯作者：
通讯机构：[1]Graduate School of Peking UnionMedical College, Beijing, 100730, People’sRepublic of China[2]Department ofGeneral Surgery, China-Japan FriendshipHospital, Beijing, 100029, People’sRepublic of China[*1]Department of General Surgery, China- Japan Friendship Hospital, 2 Cherry Blossom East Street, Beijing, 100029, People’s Republic of China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714)：
Jia-Yu Zhang,Jia Huang,Su-Ya Zhao,et al.Risk Factors and a New Prediction Model for Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy[J].RISK MANAGEMENT and HEALTHCARE POLICY.2021,14:1897-1906.doi:10.2147/RMHP.S305332.
APA：
Jia-Yu Zhang,Jia Huang,Su-Ya Zhao,Xin Liu,Zhen-Cheng Xiong&Zhi-Ying Yang.(2021).Risk Factors and a New Prediction Model for Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy.RISK MANAGEMENT and HEALTHCARE POLICY,14,
MLA：
Jia-Yu Zhang,et al."Risk Factors and a New Prediction Model for Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreaticoduodenectomy".RISK MANAGEMENT and HEALTHCARE POLICY 14.(2021):1897-1906
