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Developing a validated nomogram for predicting ovarian metastasis in endometrial cancer patients: a retrospective research

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单位: [1]Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China [2]Department of Urology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China [3]Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100029, China [4]Department of Urology, Seventh Afliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen 518107, People’s Republic of China
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关键词: Ovarian metastasis Endometrial cancer Nomogram prediction model

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Objective To explore risk factors and develop a prediction model for ovarian metastasis in endometrial cancer (EC), as well as providing provide a reference for clinical ovarian preservation. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational study enrolling 1496 EC patients having received complete staging surgery from Qilu Hospital of Shandong University from 2012 to 2018. These patients were randomly divided into two cohorts: training cohort (n = 1046) and validation cohort (n = 448). A nomogram prediction model was developed based on univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), and multivariate logistic regression. Then, the nomogram model's performance was evaluated in discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility three aspects. Results Parametrium invasion, lymph node metastasis, and oviduct metastasis were finally contained in the nomogram prediction model. The AUC of the model in the training cohort was 0.85 compared with 0.72 in the validation cohort. It also behaved well in calibration and had good clinical utility. With a threshold probability of 20% similar to 80%, the nomogram increased the net benefit by 0 similar to 13.6 per 100 patients than surgery for all patients upon validation. Conclusions We develop a nomogram with good performances for predicting ovarian metastasis in EC patients, which may help clinicians identify candidate patients appropriate for ovarian preservation in premenopausal EC patients.

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出版当年[2021]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 妇产科学
最新[2025]版:
大类 | 4 区 医学
小类 | 4 区 妇产科学
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出版当年[2020]版:
Q3 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY
最新[2023]版:
Q2 OBSTETRICS & GYNECOLOGY

影响因子: 最新[2023版] 最新五年平均[2021-2025] 出版当年[2020版] 出版当年五年平均[2016-2020] 出版前一年[2019版] 出版后一年[2021版]

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第一作者单位: [1]Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China [3]Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100029, China
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